ABS estimates 80% of tobacco consumed in Australia last year illegal amid 'rapid growth' in black market
RNZ
Overall Assessment
The article reports a significant finding from the ABS about the dominance of illegal tobacco in Australia, using credible data and diverse sources. It emphasizes policy failure and fiscal loss, with some emotionally charged language and framing that leans critical of current excise policy. While well-sourced and contextualized in parts, it underrepresents public health achievements and slightly overemphasizes the black market narrative.
"surrender our nation's health policy to organised crime or condemn the next generation to the scourge of smoking-related disease and early death"
Appeal to Emotion
Headline & Lead 85/100
The article is well-structured with a strong lead that accurately summarizes the core finding from the ABS—80% of tobacco consumed in Australia in 2025 was illegal. The headline captures the central statistic effectively but slightly misrepresents the timeframe by saying 'last year' when the data is from 2025. Language is mostly neutral and informative, though minor temporal imprecision slightly undermines accuracy. Overall, the headline and lead communicate a significant public policy development with clarity and impact, appropriate for a professional news outlet.
✕ Headline / Body Mismatch: The headline states 'last year' but the article and data refer to 2025, which is not the most recent year if the article is published in 2026. This creates a minor inaccuracy in temporal framing.
"An estimated 80 percent of the cigarettes and vapes consumed in Australia last year were illegal"
Language & Tone 82/100
The article maintains a largely objective tone but includes several emotionally charged phrases and loaded terms—such as 'spiralled out of control,' 'robbing the federal budget,' and 'scourge of smoking-related disease'—that tilt toward advocacy. While quotes from officials naturally carry strong language, the reporter does not always contextualize or neutralize these expressions. Overall, the tone remains within acceptable journalistic bounds but edges toward policy criticism rather than dispassionate reporting.
✕ Loaded Adjectives: The term 'spiralled out of control' is a value-laden phrase that dramatizes the situation and implies policy failure without neutrality.
"a black market that has spiralled out of control"
✕ Loaded Verbs: Use of 'blame' attributes causality in a way that introduces judgment rather than neutral reporting.
"experts blame for creating a black market"
✕ Loaded Language: Phrases like 'robbing the federal budget' personify economic loss in a way that evokes moral condemnation.
"robbing the federal budget of billions of dollars"
✕ Appeal to Emotion: The quote from the Assistant Customs Minister invokes fear of 'organised crime' and 'scourge of smoking-related disease' to justify policy, appealing to emotion over analysis.
"surrender our nation's health policy to organised crime or condemn the next generation to the scourge of smoking-related disease and early death"
Balance 78/100
The article draws on a range of credible sources including statistical agencies, academics, and government figures. It presents both support for and criticism of current tobacco policy, though critics are less specifically identified than supporters. The inclusion of named officials and experts enhances credibility, but the asymmetry in sourcing slightly favors the government’s position.
✓ Viewpoint Diversity: The article includes perspectives from criminologists, Treasury, government officials, and references to Coalition and Albanese government positions, showing a range of policy views.
✓ Comprehensive Sourcing: Sources include ABS data, criminologist James Martin, Treasurer Jim Chalmers, Assistant Customs Minister Julian Hill, and Illicit Tobacco Commissioner—covering statistical, academic, and governmental viewpoints.
✕ Source Asymmetry: Government officials are named and quoted at length defending current policy, while critics are described more generally as 'critics' without equal space or named counter-experts.
"Critics say the steep increases have pushed Australians to a black market"
Story Angle 75/100
The article frames the story around the failure of tobacco excise policy to prevent black market growth, emphasizing fiscal loss and enforcement challenges. While this is a valid narrative, it downplays the public health success of reduced smoking rates. The conflict between political parties and policy approaches is highlighted, which may oversimplify a multifaceted issue.
✕ Narrative Framing: The story is framed as a policy failure caused by high excise, focusing on unintended consequences rather than public health successes, which is one legitimate angle but not the only one.
✕ Framing by Emphasis: The article emphasizes revenue loss and black market growth over public health gains from reduced smoking rates, shaping the narrative around fiscal and enforcement challenges.
"robbing the federal budget of billions of dollars"
✕ Conflict Framing: Presents the issue as a debate between health policy and tax policy, or enforcement vs. excise reduction, simplifying a complex issue into opposing camps.
"While the Coalition is open to reducing the tobacco excise... the Albanese government has resisted calls to change tack"
Completeness 88/100
The article provides strong contextual background on tax policy and black market trends, including data trends and enforcement efforts. However, it omits key public health context—namely, the significant decline in smoking rates—which would help readers assess whether the policy has succeeded despite fiscal challenges. This omission skews the narrative toward failure.
✓ Contextualisation: The article provides important historical context on tobacco tax increases since 2010, including frequency and magnitude, helping readers understand policy evolution.
"Historically, the tax was increased twice yearly in line with inflation, but in 2010... started taking a more aggressive approach"
✕ Decontextualised Statistics: The article mentions a 40% increase in nicotine consumption but does not clarify whether this includes vaping, which may not carry the same health risks as smoking, potentially misleading readers.
"nicotine consumption increased by almost 40 percent between 2017 and 2025"
✕ Missing Historical Context: While tax history is covered, the article does not mention that smoking rates have halved from 25% to 10%, which is crucial context for evaluating policy success.
Tax policy is portrayed as failing due to revenue loss and unintended consequences
The article emphasizes the $8 billion downgrade in excise revenue and describes the black market as 'spiralling out of control,' framing tax policy as ineffective. The use of 'robbing the federal budget' and experts blaming excise hikes for creating the black market reinforces failure framing.
"Critics say the steep increases have pushed Australians to a black market that is robbing the federal budget of billions of dollars and forcing legitimate retailers to shut down."
Organised crime is framed as a growing adversary enabled by current policy
The article repeatedly links the black market to transnational organised crime, using emotionally charged language like 'scourge' and 'surrender our nation's health policy to organised crime,' framing crime as a dominant threat.
"The option is not to surrender our nation's health policy to organised crime or condemn the next generation to the scourge of smoking-related disease and early death."
Border is portrayed as under siege from illicit imports
The dramatic increase in seized cigarettes—from 480 million to 2.66 billion—is presented as evidence of escalating threat. The focus on Asian and Middle Eastern origins subtly frames borders as vulnerable to external smuggling flows.
"Under-the-counter cigarettes sell for around $25 a pack and are being imported in huge quantities, mainly from Asia and the Middle East."
Government policy is questioned for lack of adaptability and accountability
The government's resistance to excise reduction despite mounting evidence of policy failure is highlighted. Quotes from ministers dismissing reform without offering alternatives imply defensiveness and lack of responsiveness.
"While the Coalition is open to reducing the tobacco excise to encourage smokers to shift to the legal product, the Albanese government has resisted calls to change tack."
Public health policy is framed as contributing to harmful unintended consequences
While public health goals are acknowledged, the framing focuses on how high taxes have backfired by expanding the black market. The omission of smoking rate declines (from 25% to 10%) downplays success, shifting emphasis to harm.
"These numbers put it in the most stark terms possible... This is a massive policy failure and requires a radical rethink."
The article reports a significant finding from the ABS about the dominance of illegal tobacco in Australia, using credible data and diverse sources. It emphasizes policy failure and fiscal loss, with some emotionally charged language and framing that leans critical of current excise policy. While well-sourced and contextualized in parts, it underrepresents public health achievements and slightly overemphasizes the black market narrative.
This article is part of an event covered by 3 sources.
View all coverage: "ABS estimates 80% of tobacco consumed in Australia in 2025 was illegal, driven by rising nicotine use and falling legal sales"New experimental data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics suggests that 80% of tobacco products consumed in 2025 were obtained illegally, a sharp rise from 12% in 2017. The estimate is based on wastewater analysis and declining legal sales. The findings raise questions about the effectiveness of high tobacco excise policies amid growing black market activity.
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